Erickson Lubin still has plenty to prove. He’s one of the 10-best junior middleweights in the world, but it’s still difficult to forget Jermell Charlo laying him out in the first round three years ago. Since then, Lubin has won four-straight fights, and he’s favored to beat Terrell Gausha in their Saturday night matchup on Showtime. Unsurprisingly, the boxing odds show Lubin a favorite, but it’s worth exploring some of his prop bets (along with the odds for Jose Pedraza vs. Javier Molina and prospect Jaron “Boots” Ennis vs. Juan Carlos Abreu).
But based on that Charlo disaster, you can forgive those who still aren’t sure whether Lubin can crack the top of the 154-pound division. Including Gausha.
“I’m planning to show the gap between us as fighters,” Gausha said this week. “He was the one to call for this fight, but anyone who plays with my name, I make sure to send for them.”
I guess we’ll see. Until then, here’s what you need to know about Saturday’s boxing odds.
Boxing odds: The 3 most interesting wagers this week
-Erickson Lubin vs. Terrell Gausha (-163 for Lubin decision win): Lubin (22-1, 16 KOs) is a relatively big favorite for his matchup vs. Gausha (21-1-1, 10 KOs) on Saturday night on Showtime at 9 p.m. ET, and I don’t think it’s a great idea to take his money line at -700, meaning you’d have to wager $700 to win $100 (Gausha is +400, which means you’d win $400 on a $100 bet). But I don’t mind the idea of going with Lubin by decision at -163. That’s a better value than picking the fight to go the distance, which is -225. Gausha has been knocked down once in his career but never been knocked out, and Lubin’s power hasn’t proven to be mind-altering at the elite level.
-Jose Pedraza (-170) vs. Javier Molina (+150): In his last fight inside the Las Vegas bubble, Pedraza (27-3, 13 KOs) looked excellent, easily beating Mikkel LesPierre by wide unanimous decision in July. But Molina (22-2, 9 KOs) should give him a solid test when they meet Saturday night in the main event on an ESPN+ card that starts at 10 p.m. ET. Pedraza has losses vs. Vasiliy Lomachenko, Gervonta “Tank” Davis and Jose Zepeda in the past few years, but he looked like a new fighter two months ago. Despite the fact Molina has won five-straight since falling to Jamal James in 2016, I’d take Pedraza’s money line of -170 here.
-Jaron “Boots” Ennis (-5000) vs. Juan Carlos Abreu (+1500): There’s not really much point in wagering on the Ennis money line. The welterweight prospect who’s 25-0 with 23 KOs fights on the undercard of the Lubin vs. Gausha match, and because Ennis is so darn good, he’s a must watch. And Abreu (23-5-1, 21 KOs) has been a solid fighter. But Ennis most likely will win and win big here. If you can find a prop bet for Ennis to knock him out, perhaps at -400, that might be a possibility. But remember, Abreu has never been stopped in his career.
If you want to parlay the bets on a Lubin decision victory and a Pedraza win, a $100 wager would pay out about $154. If you combined all three bets (Lubin decision win, Pedraza money line and Ennis’ money line), you’d walk away with $159.
Tracking boxing’s future wagers
-With only eight days to go before the biggest PPV event of the pandemic era, the odds for the junior middleweight titlist Jermell Charlo vs. Sergiy Derevyanchenko fight have gotten a little longer for the challenger. Charlo was at -140 when the fight was announced, but this week, he’s a -175 favorite. Derevyanchenko was +100 to start, but now, he’s a +125 underdog. It’ll be intriguing to see what happens next week with the odds for this fight.
-One of the most exciting showdowns of the year has begun to capture the attention of oddsmakers. When Vasiliy Lomachenko faces Teofimo Lopez on Oct. 17, it’ll be a contest between the two best 135-pounders in the world. The two boxers with whom I’ve talked recently have picked Lomachenko to win. So far, those oddsmakers agree, as Lomachenko is a -350 favorite while Lopez is a +250 underdog.
-I really, really hope these fight rumors are fake. And I really, really, really hope that these odds are even faker.
Gambling tweet of the week
Something to keep in mind about an upcoming heavyweight rematch. Last month, Alexander Povetkin shocked Dillian Whyte with a fifth-round knockout. Still, it’s not surprising to see Whyte is a favorite for the rematch, because he was basically dominating Povetkin until the final punch.